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Thread: 2013 Kentucky Derby

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    2013 Kentucky Derby

    I'm thinking of using some exotic wheel bets with the following:

    Revolutionary

    Overanalyze

    Lines of Battle

    Verrazano

    Orb


    Anybody else?

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    Re: 2013 Kentucky Derby

    Java's War is my pick.

    36-1 shot won the Oaks today. The rain tomorrow will create an interesting mix.
    Kentucky 41 - Louisville 38.
    L's Down.


  3. #3
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    Re: 2013 Kentucky Derby

    Itsmyluckyday is my top pick. I will post some other horses that I like underneath.

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    Re: 2013 Kentucky Derby

    Also note that the #1 Black Onyx and #21 Fear The Kitten have been scratched.

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    Re: 2013 Kentucky Derby

    Quote Originally Posted by Urb Gruber View Post
    Itsmyluckyday is my top pick. I will post some other horses that I like underneath.
    Still waiting
    Kentucky 41 - Louisville 38.
    L's Down.


  6. #6
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    Re: 2013 Kentucky Derby

    Alright, here is what I think happens in the Darby tomorrow. Rain is in the forecast, so adjust your handicapping accordingly.



    #1 Black Onyx (50-1) - Scratched

    #2 Oxbow (30-1) - He should really appreciate the 10 Furlong trip and he should adore the trip. I am worried about his last race and why he was so far back. He should adore the wet track as well. Nevertheless, I will include him in the bottom of Exactas and trifectas.

    #3 Revolutionary (10-1) - Coming into the Derby beautifully and training is also excellent. The wet surface should not be a problem (his sire won the 2007 BC Juvenile at Monmouth Park in a monsoon). I have 2 concerns with him: 1) His sire struggled to get 8.5 furlongs and 2) he will be an underlay. He is a must use in the bottom of exotics, but from a win perspective, I will look for value elsewhere.

    #4 Golden Soul (50-1) - This guy is very light on the Beyer numbers and is probably better suited for Turf given his pedigree. I cannot endorse this one, but this is the Derby so anything can happen. Pass.

    #5 Normandy Invasion (12-1) - Lots of reasons to like this guy; 3rd off the layoff, improving each start, should love 10 furlongs, working very well. One caveat may be the pace scenario. There is not a lot of pace for him to run at, but he can close into a soft pace. Must use in the exotics.

    #6 Mylute (15-1) - He was 2nd to Revolutionary in his last race, but there are some serious concerns here. The pedigree screams sprinter/miler and he hung badly in the stretch last out. Also, there is the Rosie effect (his Jockey) who will make him an underlay. I will pass on this horse in the exotics.

    #7 Giant Finish (50-1) - Late entrant to the Derby field, this horse looks overmatched. Very light on the numbers and does not appear to like Sloppy tracks. Pass.

    #8 Goldencents (5-1) - Hard to fault this horse as he always fires. I'm not sure how much he wants 10 furlongs, but he has Doug O'Neill in his corner (and Rick Pitino for that matter). The pace of the race should also be to his advantage. That said, I think he is undervalued from the win perspective, but a must use underneath.

    #9 Overanalyze (15-1) - It is hard for me to figure him out. He has light numbers, but ran a huge race at 2 in the Remsen; ran in 6 straight graded races. He tore up the track in his last workout over the Churchill Surface and is making his 3rd start off the layoff. I am not a big fan of Pletcher in the Derby, but I will use this guy on top.

    #10 Palace Malice (20-1) - Mike Smith and Todd Pletcher teamed up to win the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and they are back again with this colt. Distance and sloppy surface should be no problem for him. My main concern is his last race where he struck the top and then was caught late and to a slightly . He should sit a good trip in this race, but again I do not trust Pletcher on Derby Day. I will go against my instincts and put him on top.

    #11 Lines of Battle (30-1) - Foreign runners do not have the best memories in the Derby. Tough to gage how he will like dirt, but the 10 furlong distance and sloppy track shouldn't be a problem. He does have, arguably, the world's best trainer in Aidan O'Brien. I will use underneath, but would not be shocked if he won the Derby.

    #12 Itsmyluckyday (15-1) - As stated earlier, this is my top pick. He should get the cat bird's trip and should love the sloppy surface. There is the concern that he was run down by Orb in the last race and having a top race outside the state of Florida. A small, but noteworthy mention is that of his name; he will get a lot of public money because of his name and that does worry me, but still worth taking the chance. He is working well and should get the perfect trip.

    #13 Falling Sky (50-1) - Every year, I always like a horse that on paper has no chance. This year's edition is Falling Sky. In all honesty this is just a longshot play. This horse has regressed with the added distance and the better competition. The pace scenario is to his benefit and he should improve on a sloppy track. Plus, the workouts at CD have been very good. I know I am stretching, but I will throw a small WPS wager on this guy and nothing more.

    #14 Verrazano (4-1) - He is undefeated and should get a great trip. Workouts have been good (in his last workout, he worked against Authenticity who won a race on the Kentucky Oaks card). He does have Pletcher in his corner (which I personally do not believe is a good thing) and John Velazquez. I am concerned about the 10 furlongs as his sire, but in fairness, that could probably be said for most of this field. Must use on top and underneath.

    #15 Charming Kitten (20-1) - This guy has a chance as his Sire is completely on fire with his progeny. Biggest concern is whether he will like the dirt. My guess is no and at 20-1, that is too low for me to wager on. Pass.

    #16 Orb (7-2) - ML favorite is gaining a lot of fans very quickly and deservedly so. He has the hottest rider in the sport (Rosario) and is being brought into this race perfectly by McGaughey. Really hard to fault this guy, but if there is one it would be the possibility of traffic trouble. If he avoids that, he has no excuses. Must use on top.

    #17 Will Take Charge (20-1) - I really like the mile workouts this guy got and his last race was very nice. Lukas has already won 4 Derbies to add to his cause. There is, of course, the glaring race in the Southwest which was run on a sloppy surface (the same surface I am expecting in the Derby) in which Will Take Charge ran extremely poorly. Also consider his worst race was run at Churchill Downs. This guy has an outside chance, but I will use him underneath.

    #18 Frac Daddy (50-1) - Ran a really nice race at Churchill to break his maiden, but has not come close to repeating that form. It is really hard for me to see this guy in the mix. Pass.

    #19 Java's War (15-1) - This guy will be coming late in the Derby. Biggest issues are the post position (how much ground will he lose getting to the fence) and the break (how much ground will he spot the field to start the race). I also believe this horse to be better suited to Synthetic and Turf surfaces. The pedigree (War Pass) also is a strike against for me. I will use this guy underneath in the exotics given his ability to close from China.

    #20 Vyjack (15-1) - Was impressive in his first 4 races, but had little excuse last time out. Allegedly he had a lung infection, according to his trainer. The 10 furlongs is also a concern, but he should love the slop. His jockey, Garrett Gomez, does best with horses who can sit right off the pace. I will use him underneath in the exotics as well.

    #21 Fear The Kitten (50-1) - Scratched


    For those of you scoring at home, the breakdown is as follows:

    Win Candidates: 9,10,12,14,16
    Underneath: 2,3,5,8,11,17,19,20
    Tosses: 4,6,7,13,15,18
    Scratched: 1,21

    Disclosure: I currently have $10 Win on Goldencents (will pay $43.40 to win), Normandy Invasion ($33.00), Revolutionary ($29), and Verrazano ($24) in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1. I also have money to win on Verrazano ($17 will pay) in Future Wager Pool 3. These will affect my wagering strategies.

    Wagers:
    $10 Win-Place-Show on #12 Itsmyluckyday ($30)
    $3 Win-Place-Show on #13 Falling Sky ($9)
    .50 Trifecta 9-10-12 with 9-10-12-14-16 with 2-3-5-8-9-10-11-12-14-16-17-19-20 ($66)
    .50 Trifecta 16 with 2-3-5-8-9-10-11-12-14-16-17-19-20 with 9-10-12-14 ($26)

    Good luck to all who wager on the Kentucky Derby.

  7. #7
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    Re: 2013 Kentucky Derby

    Quote Originally Posted by GR8NESS View Post
    Still waiting
    Sorry. I just finished my dissertation of the Derby field.

  8. #8
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    Re: 2013 Kentucky Derby

    Orb was sensational in the Derby. The pace was lightning fast, which was not expected, but ultimately helped Orb. Everything Joel Rosario touches is turning to gold. What a ride he is currently on (no pun intended).

    I expect Orb to win the Preakness and go on to Belmont for a chance at immortality...

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