Could the SEC be shut out of the National Championship?

[Friedchickenman]

This honestly only really applies if Alabama wins out the rest of the season. Right now, there are eight undefeated teams that could make a serious case if they won out (Oregon, Florida State, Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas, Oregon State, TCU, Notre Dame), that their schedule was tougher then Alabama's. Especially if you consider LSU possibly losing to Florida or faltering down the stretch, who would Alabama have played other then in the SEC championship game, that would be a top 10 team? The BCS rankings aren't out yet, but one thing to keep in mind is that the computers do consider strength of schedule into their equations.

It sounds ridiculous that a team that won the national championship just the year before could go undefeated the next and not get a shot to defend the title, but I really have to ask. If any of those teams are undefeated for the rest of the season and look good doing it, and Alabama is racking up wins against teams with probable losing records, with maybe a big win in the championship game, then how can you say that Alabama's resume will be more deserving of these teams? A Kansas State team with 4 top 15 wins? An Oregon team with 5 top 25 wins? A West Virginia team with 5 top 25 wins? A media darling Notre Dame team with 5 top 25 wins? A Texas team with 4 top 25 wins (2 probably top 10)? A TCU team that finishes the season against 4 top 10 teams (okay, highly unlikely they win all of those but anything is possible). Oregon State with 5 top 25 wins?

Judging from the teams above the most serious contender to the SEC getting their shot would be both an undefeated Pac-10 champion and an undefeated Big 12 Champion (or Notre Dame). You can argue until you're blue in the face that it's not Alabama's fault that their strength of schedule is imploding, but the reality is it is.

There's also the scenario where the SEC finishes the season with a 1-loss conference champion, if that happens, I would have to honestly say that I wouldn't be surprised at all if the SEC doesn't have a team make it in. This year, just has an odd feel to it. I really don't see Oregon getting beaten down the stretch, their defense is much improved, and that with their offense is going to probably pave the way for them to be undefeated. In the Big 12 one could easily argue that Texas or West Virginia could go undefeated. Who can really stop Geno Smith at this point? Texas meanwhile is playing good, and in fact just beat Mississippi far worse in Oxford then Alabama did at home. These things won't be talked about now, but I can guarantee you they will if the time comes. Florida State going undefeated could have a similar resume to Alabama's, but they are looking very impressive in each and every one of their games and I don't see anyone beating them.

So, I guess time will tell, usually we go down the year and most of these teams fall away, but this year it just looks like there's a serious possibility of BChaoS at the end of the year.

[BasketballofUF]

If no one from the SEC goes undefeated, I could definitely see an Oregon-Florida State national championship game happening. Florida State's schedule from now on is pathetic. They shouldn't have a problem going undefeated up until the UF-FSU game, but FSU always does seem to drop a few they should win. If they do go undefeated, they'll probably make the championship game thanks to the pollsters. Oregon has a few more tough games, but I think they're a legitimate Top 2 or Top 3 team. They could easily go undefeated.

I don't think anyone from the Big 12 will go undefeated, though. Texas, WVU, Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma, etc will probably all beat up on each other.

So, yeah, I think it's possible the SEC gets shut out this season. Do I think it will happen? No, as I think Alabama will go undefeated and there is no way that an undefeated Alabama team will get snubbed, regardless of their strength of schedule.

[KingDawg]

First of all, it's still just too early for all this speculation about who's going to have what record come December. A lot of the teams listed have some of their toughest games ahead of them, some have to play each other, and then face a conference title game. I've seen enough crazy stuff go down over the years to know that "locks to go undefeated" are often anything but. Hell, people were already bemoaning the indisputable fact that USC and Oklahoma would be undefeated/unchallenged all year before the season even started.

Secondly, anybody can bitch all they want...if reigning national champion Alabama is undefeated after the SECCG, they're in. Simple as that. They have ALL the first place votes right now. Saban has the entire football polling universe believing he's Bear Bryant reincarnate (with good reason, mind you).

[GatorMan32]

way too early. lots of teams you dont expect to stumble inevitably will. its an interesting series of points but its just so early. MSU could have a big year. so could TAMU and those two teams could help build Alabama's resume in your scenario too.

[LSUTigers1404]

If we have an undefeated SEC team, they will be in, period.

However, if the SEC's streak is going to end, this is the best chance for it to end.

[planetalker]

This honestly only really applies if Alabama wins out the rest of the season. Right now, there are eight undefeated teams that could make a serious case if they won out (Oregon, Florida State, Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas, Oregon State, TCU, Notre Dame), that their schedule was tougher then Alabama's. Especially if you consider LSU possibly losing to Florida or faltering down the stretch, who would Alabama have played other then in the SEC championship game, that would be a top 10 team? The BCS rankings aren't out yet, but one thing to keep in mind is that the computers do consider strength of schedule into their equations.

It sounds ridiculous that a team that won the national championship just the year before could go undefeated the next and not get a shot to defend the title, but I really have to ask. If any of those teams are undefeated for the rest of the season and look good doing it, and Alabama is racking up wins against teams with probable losing records, with maybe a big win in the championship game, then how can you say that Alabama's resume will be more deserving of these teams? A Kansas State team with 4 top 15 wins? An Oregon team with 5 top 25 wins? A West Virginia team with 5 top 25 wins? A media darling Notre Dame team with 5 top 25 wins? A Texas team with 4 top 25 wins (2 probably top 10)? A TCU team that finishes the season against 4 top 10 teams (okay, highly unlikely they win all of those but anything is possible). Oregon State with 5 top 25 wins?

Judging from the teams above the most serious contender to the SEC getting their shot would be both an undefeated Pac-10 champion and an undefeated Big 12 Champion (or Notre Dame). You can argue until you're blue in the face that it's not Alabama's fault that their strength of schedule is imploding, but the reality is it is.

There's also the scenario where the SEC finishes the season with a 1-loss conference champion, if that happens, I would have to honestly say that I wouldn't be surprised at all if the SEC doesn't have a team make it in. This year, just has an odd feel to it. I really don't see Oregon getting beaten down the stretch, their defense is much improved, and that with their offense is going to probably pave the way for them to be undefeated. In the Big 12 one could easily argue that Texas or West Virginia could go undefeated. Who can really stop Geno Smith at this point? Texas meanwhile is playing good, and in fact just beat Mississippi far worse in Oxford then Alabama did at home. These things won't be talked about now, but I can guarantee you they will if the time comes. Florida State going undefeated could have a similar resume to Alabama's, but they are looking very impressive in each and every one of their games and I don't see anyone beating them.

So, I guess time will tell, usually we go down the year and most of these teams fall away, but this year it just looks like there's a serious possibility of BChaoS at the end of the year.

Oregon plays Oregon St. that's 1 down.
Texas plays TCU that's another 1 down
Texas then plays Kansas State that is possibly another one down

So 2 of those eight will have a loss, and the likelyhood is that more will lose. How many times have we had 7 (if you count Alabama) undefeated teams. It could happen. You are correct in that our strength of schedule has taken a hit because of Arkansas especially but Michigan also just lost to Notre Dame. It happened to Auburn (and it shouldn't have) so it could happen again. To be honest there would be an argument for not including Alabama due to strength of schedule but someone is going to have to vote them out of the top 2 and right now they are solid #1.

[Naval Aviator]

As usual, the SEC controls it's own fate with regard to the BCS Title Game. I don't see anyone knocking off Bama, but I didn't see LSU coming last year (and neither did Bama).

Many of the conferences defenses are suspect (and I include A&M's). That could be our collective achilles heel. But so far, Bama hasn't shown that weekness.

I agree with planetalker. I have a feeling Oregon State has a shot at the Rose Bowl and K-State is my current favorite for the Big 12. The games in Columbia and Gainesville will be telling this weekend.

Fact is, it's just too early to tell.

[Herchel]

A one loss SEC team will be excluded if there are two undefeated teams.

[AURex]

It's really hard this early in the season to know how things are going to play out. But if both teams going into the SECCG are undefeated, they will likely both be top 5 ranked teams, and it will be a very high visibility game nationally. In that scenario, the winner goes to the BCSCG. If the winner of the SECCG has a loss, and if there are two undefeated teams nationally, the SEC team gets dropped from the BCSCG.

The weird thing about the strength of schedule issue is that it's really only a factor in the computer rankings. And the combined computer rankings only count for one-third of the BCS ranking. The two popularity polls are still the most important factor in selecting the two teams that meet in the BCSCG. And SOS is of marginal relevance in the popularity polls.

[HIGHTIDES]

FSU's schedule is a JOKE and I'm guessing you didn't watch their game against South Florida. It was 13-10 in the 3rd quarter and FSU only won 30-17. Pretty much all those teams face each other so the undefeated list is going to be cut down DRASTICALLY.

Michigan, Missouri, UT, Ole MIss, MSU, LSU, A&M, Auburn, Western Kentucky, SECCG.... which of these teams are going to have "probably losing records"?

Notre Dame barely squeezed by a team we CRUSHED.

Why don't we let these teams that haven't gone undefeated in YEARS actually do it before we start talking about how they are more deserving to be in the BSCCG. I get that this was a long winded attempt to put down our schedule though. We could easily face a top 5 opponent in LSU and another top 5 opponent in the SECCG. MSU, Missouri and Texas A&M could all end up being top 25 opponents at the end of the year. UT could lose to us but win the rest of their games and be a top 20 team. Michigan will probably end up still ranked at the end of the year. They were a top 10 team when we faced them.