Kentucky As A Darkhorse For The East? [Archive] - SEC Sports Forum | SEC Basketball | SEC Football

PDA

View Full Version : Kentucky As A Darkhorse For The East?



boxvic
08-04-2017, 03:00 PM
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/8/4/16051834/kentucky-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

Is it time for kick off yet?!?! I am getting pumped. This is the best time of the year to be a UK football fan, because we have such high expectations, and we haven't been disappointed yet.

Dr.SwineSmeller
08-04-2017, 04:56 PM
That's what a lot of gurus are saying.

MKfromPA
08-04-2017, 06:53 PM
I can believe Kentucky. I'm not surprised if they compete for the East. UGA and UF will be right up at the top. As much grief as people are giving Missouri, I call them a potential darkhorse too. May be crazy, but that's my pick.

boxvic
08-04-2017, 10:23 PM
We can be really, really good if our defense can just be marginal all year. Our passing game is going to be fairly "bleh" overall again, but just like last year we should have some 400 and 500 yard passing games because defenses are going to be keyed on the run. Our run game, assuming we stay healthy because we will have less depth this year, will be one of the best in country. We would have finished near the top of rushing stats nationally last year had we been a run focused team all year, but we didn't really shift into that gear until October. Benny Snell is one of the best running backs in the SEC.

I think our offense will have no problem running for 200 and passing for 300 a game again, we should be able to score even against UGA and UF. The real question is going to be if the defense can take even a half step forward. We got into shoot outs last year with some teams that we could have run away from if we had swapped defenses.

The Zou
08-04-2017, 11:27 PM
I would like to see Kentucky push for SECEast Champ; I like to see teams make runs and make things interesting/better and I truly believe they could do it (...or are not far off).

If GA & FL could ever get off their asses we probably wouldn't have these conversations!! But I'm glad UK (... and Mizzou) have Darkhorse opportunities; makes the swason better!!!

Dr.SwineSmeller
08-04-2017, 11:31 PM
I think 6-2 will be the mark that wins the East this season. It's going to be competitive. Probably as much as ever. I don't see any team that is going to be a punching bag.

The Zou
08-04-2017, 11:36 PM
What is the path for UK to go 6-2?

The Zou
08-04-2017, 11:37 PM
What is the path for UK to go 6-2?

Probably very close to Mizzou's path to go 6-2...

boxvic
08-04-2017, 11:51 PM
UK could potentially go 6-2 by beating USC, Mizzou, MSU, Ole Miss, UT, and Vandy; and losing to UF and UGA. That still probably wouldn't win the east though, because one of UF or UGA will most likely win at least 6 and take the tie-breaker.

Dr.SwineSmeller
08-04-2017, 11:59 PM
UK could potentially go 6-2 by beating USC, Mizzou, MSU, Ole Miss, UT, and Vandy; and losing to UF and UGA. That still probably wouldn't win the east though, because one of UF or UGA will most likely win at least 6 and take the tie-breaker.

My thoughts exactly.

I would pay money to see UK upend Florida. That streak can't last forever, and UK has the team to get that done this season...And UK gets that game at home. I have a feeling the stadium will be rocking for that one.

The Zou
08-05-2017, 12:09 AM
UK could potentially go 6-2 by beating USC, Mizzou, MSU, Ole Miss, UT, and Vandy; and losing to UF and UGA. That still probably wouldn't win the east though, because one of UF or UGA will most likely win at least 6 and take the tie-breaker.


My thoughts exactly.

I would pay money to see UK upend Florida. That streak can't last forever, and UK has the team to get that done this season...And UK gets that game at home. I have a feeling the stadium will be rocking for that one.

I see those 6 wins as a real possibility. FL and GA recruit out of this world... but struggle to put it together.

zud the hut
08-05-2017, 12:14 AM
My thoughts exactly.

I would pay money to see UK upend Florida. That streak can't last forever, and UK has the team to get that done this season...And UK gets that game at home. I have a feeling the stadium will be rocking for that one.
I would like to see the Cats end that streak. The law of averages is that a program gotta win one somewhere down the road!

The Zou
08-05-2017, 12:14 AM
I can believe Kentucky. I'm not surprised if they compete for the East. UGA and UF will be right up at the top. As much grief as people are giving Missouri, I call them a potential darkhorse too. May be crazy, but that's my pick.

I am excited to see what Mizzou does; it's been a long road since J. Wright came to town and screwed up our program. We have a QB that is talented... and might be able to break some hearts!!

zud the hut
08-05-2017, 12:35 AM
I am excited to see what Mizzou does; it's been a long road since J. Wright came to town and screwed up our program. We have a QB that is talented... and might be able to break some hearts!!
Generally speaking, fans are going to look down at your program becuz it's down. And they will until something changes their minds. But overall respect is slow to come. I think that Vandy would have to win a national title before they could shake off their perception and even then, people would throw rocks at them.

How do you see Mizzou's road back to success? Will it happen this year or next? What does your crystal ball tell you?

MKfromPA
08-05-2017, 08:26 AM
We can be really, really good if our defense can just be marginal all year. Our passing game is going to be fairly "bleh" overall again, but just like last year we should have some 400 and 500 yard passing games because defenses are going to be keyed on the run. Our run game, assuming we stay healthy because we will have less depth this year, will be one of the best in country. We would have finished near the top of rushing stats nationally last year had we been a run focused team all year, but we didn't really shift into that gear until October. Benny Snell is one of the best running backs in the SEC.

I think our offense will have no problem running for 200 and passing for 300 a game again, we should be able to score even against UGA and UF. The real question is going to be if the defense can take even a half step forward. We got into shoot outs last year with some teams that we could have run away from if we had swapped defenses.

Well said. Do you think this could be the year UK finally ends its losing streak against UF?

Just Some Hog Dude
08-05-2017, 10:05 AM
I doubt they will win the East. UK probably needs to luck out and hire a truly great coach before they can win the SEC East.

boxvic
08-06-2017, 07:18 AM
Well said. Do you think this could be the year UK finally ends its losing streak against UF?

Probably not. I think Florida was weaker and more likely to be beaten last year, and we couldn't put it together enough to even show up for that game. I think we definitely make it more of a game this year though.

zud the hut
08-06-2017, 11:22 AM
Probably not. I think Florida was weaker and more likely to be beaten last year, and we couldn't put it together enough to even show up for that game. I think we definitely make it more of a game this year though.
When I came to Lexington in 2007, we were ranked #1 and did win the national title. Ya'll beat us. That was a crazy nite!

And I was also there for the Blue Grass Miracle. That was the most memorable play for me as an LSU fan.

GR8NESS
08-06-2017, 11:58 PM
What is the path for UK to go 6-2?

lose to UGA, have them go 5-3, and lose to USC and have them go 5-3. That puts us at 2-2 on the road in the SEC and win all the home games.

GR8NESS
08-07-2017, 12:01 AM
We can be really, really good if our defense can just be marginal all year..

The key is the DL. We have solid LBs and a fantastic back 4 (with depth!)

Herchel
08-07-2017, 09:08 AM
UK can put together a great season every now and then, but to compete annually, you have to recruit better.

Here is UGA's probable lineup.

QB - 5*, 2015 HS POY
RB _ 5*
RB - 5*
TE - 5*
WR - 5*
WR - 5* or 4*
LT - 4*
LG - 4*
C - 4*
RG - 4*
RT - 4*
DL - 4*
DL - 4*
DL - 5* 2014 HS POY
LB - 4*
LB - 4*
LB - 4*
LB - 5*
CB - 4*
CB - 4* or 5*
S - 3*
S - 4*

Bama_Man
08-07-2017, 05:20 PM
UK can put together a great season every now and then, but to compete annually, you have to recruit better.

Here is UGA's probable lineup.

QB - 5*, 2015 HS POY
RB _ 5*
RB - 5*
TE - 5*
WR - 5*
WR - 5* or 4*
LT - 4*
LG - 4*
C - 4*
RG - 4*
RT - 4*
DL - 4*
DL - 4*
DL - 5* 2014 HS POY
LB - 4*
LB - 4*
LB - 4*
LB - 5*
CB - 4*
CB - 4* or 5*
S - 3*
S - 4*

Most of the big SEC schools have depth charts like that. It's tough for UK to compete annually while other schools like UF, UGA and UT in the East bring in loads of 4-5* kids.

At Bama, I'm not sure any 3*s will start. All 4-5*

Dawg in Dallas
08-07-2017, 05:32 PM
Most of the big SEC schools have depth charts like that. It's tough for UK to compete annually while other schools like UF, UGA and UT in the East bring in loads of 4-5* kids.

At Bama, I'm not sure any 3*s will start. All 4-5*

Bama is not a great comparison for ANY school at this point. How many years in a row have they had the #1 class?

Bama_Man
08-07-2017, 07:01 PM
Bama is not a great comparison for ANY school at this point. How many years in a row have they had the #1 class?

Not sure, but they've been top five every season under Saban. UGA fans can't complain they arent ever far behind.

Herchel
08-08-2017, 08:14 AM
Most of the big SEC schools have depth charts like that. It's tough for UK to compete annually while other schools like UF, UGA and UT in the East bring in loads of 4-5* kids.

At Bama, I'm not sure any 3*s will start. All 4-5*
Our 3* is All SEC, Dominick Sanders

Just Some Hog Dude
08-08-2017, 10:29 AM
Not sure, but they've been top five every season under Saban. UGA fans can't complain they arent ever far behind.

They are when it comes to championships. Recruiting rankings must be an inexact science huh?

Bama_Man
08-08-2017, 04:45 PM
Our 3* is All SEC, Dominick Sanders
A lot of great Bama guys were 3* as well.

Herchel
08-08-2017, 05:34 PM
They are when it comes to championships. Recruiting rankings must be an inexact science huh?
We have 12 to Arkansas' Zero.

MKfromPA
08-08-2017, 06:57 PM
A lot of great Bama guys were 3* as well.

I think an analogous comparison to preseason rankings is recruiting. Coaches and scouts have only seen what incoming HS recruits have done at the high school level. Who knows what they will be like once they step on a college gridiron in a regular season game situation? You don't. BUT one can predict and guess what kind of tendencies the players will have and the skill they possess the capability they can display. Recruit ranking isn't everything, and as Bama Man points out, 3 * recruits can be awesome in college and even in the pros. And on the other hand, not all 4 and 5 * players pan out to be the GOAT.

The Zou
08-19-2017, 05:30 PM
UK can put together a great season every now and then, but to compete annually, you have to recruit better.

Here is UGA's probable lineup.

QB - 5*, 2015 HS POY
RB _ 5*
RB - 5*
TE - 5*
WR - 5*
WR - 5* or 4*
LT - 4*
LG - 4*
C - 4*
RG - 4*
RT - 4*
DL - 4*
DL - 4*
DL - 5* 2014 HS POY
LB - 4*
LB - 4*
LB - 4*
LB - 5*
CB - 4*
CB - 4* or 5*
S - 3*
S - 4*

I don't entirely disagree with your point, H...

BUT:

- UGA has more 5* in that lineup than SUM of Mizzou's 5 years in SEC
- UGA has more 4* in that lineup than SUM of Mizzou's 5 years in SEC
- UGA has only slipped from Top 10 recuiting 1 or 2 times in last 15 years; Mizzou probably hasn't broken the Top 20 a single time!

East Titles in 5 years Mizzou has been in SEC:

2 - Florida (2015, 2016)
2 - Mizzou (2013, 2014)
1 - UGA (2012)

Outside of winning the SEC-E there is a sizable difference in total W/L records in last 5 years... and that is where your 4/5* advantage comes into play. But UGA also you didn't suffer the last two years because Jeremiah ("GD America") Wright didn't go to Athens to stir up hunger strikes, either.

If we forget about last two years (ie mizzou hunger strike)... here are the records 2005-2014:

UGA: 94 wins (6-4 in bowl games, 1-1 in BCS Bowls)
Mizzou: 91 Wins (6-3 in bowl games, 0-0 in BCS Bowls)

I grant that its not a perfect comparison -- Mizzou was in Big 12 for majority of that period, and it also "cherry picks" by not including last two years -- but there are some decent comparisons.

2005: UGA(W) vs S.Car (17-15); Mizzou(W) vs S.Car (38-31)

2006: UGA(W) vs O.Miss (14-9); Mizzou(W) vs O.Miss (34-7)
UGA(W) vs CO (14-13) ; Mizzou(W) vs CO (28-13)

2007: UGA(W) vs O.Miss (41-17); Mizzou(W) vs O.Miss (38-25)

2008: None

2009: UGA(L) vs OKSt (10-24); Mizzou(L) vs OKSt (17-33)

2010: UGA(L) vs CO (27-29) ; Mizzou(W) vs CO (26-0)

2011: None

2012: UGA(W) vs Mizzou (41-20)
UGA(L) vs S.Car (7-35) ; Mizzou(L) vs S.Car (10-31)
UGA(W) vs Van (48-3) ; Mizzou(L) vs Van (15-19)
UGA(W) vs TN (51-44) ; Mizzou(W) vs TN (51-48)
UGA(W) vs KY (29-24) ; Mizzou(W) vs KY (33-10)
UGA(W) vs FL (17-9) ; Mizzou(L) vs FL (7-14)
UGA(L) vs AL (28-32) ; Mizzou(W) vs AL (10-42)

2013: UGA vs Mizzou(W) (26-41)
UGA(W) vs FL (23-20) ; Mizzou(W) vs FL (36-17)
UGA(W) vs S.Car (41-30) ; Mizzou(L) vs S.Car (24-27)
UGA(W) vs TN (34-31) ; Mizzou(W) vs TN (31-3)
UGA(L) vs Van (27-31) ; Mizzou(W) vs Van (51-28)
UGA(W) vs KY (59-17) ; Mizzou(W) vs KY (48-17)
UGA(L) vs Aub (38-43). ; Mizzou(L) vs Aub (42-59)

2014: UGA(W) vs Mizzou (34-0)
UGA(L) vs S.Car (35-38) ; Mizzou(W) s S.Car (21-20)
UGA(W) vs TN (35-32) ; Mizzou(W) vs TN (29-21)
UGA(W) vs Van (44-17) ; Mizzou(W) vs Van (24-14)
UGA(W) vs AR (45-32) ; Mizzou(W) vs AR (21-14)
UGA(L) vs FL (20-38) ; Mizzou(W) vs FL (42-13)
UGA(W) vs KY (63-31) ; Mizzou(W) vs KY (20-10)

Total W/L vs common opponent 2005-2014:

UGA: 16-8

Mizzou: 18-6

Head to Head:

UGA (2-1) vs Mizzou (1-2)


-------------------------------------------

Conclusion: UGA is a better football program (imo) -- PARTICULARLY when you add in 2015 & 2016 seasons.

But does the evidence (above) really support your statement that to compete year-over-year... your team has to be loaded with 4* & 5* recruits?

Mizzou is lucky to get a total of three 4+ star recruits per year... and from 2005-2014 I'd say we matched up with UGA quite well.

What say you?


(Accuracy Disclaimer: I did all of this on my phone... so these stats are subject to "fat finger" errors and difficulty of seeing the whole screen at once. If I goofed anything, I apologize up front!!)

The Zou
08-19-2017, 05:36 PM
Most of the big SEC schools have depth charts like that. It's tough for UK to compete annually while other schools like UF, UGA and UT in the East bring in loads of 4-5* kids.

At Bama, I'm not sure any 3*s will start. All 4-5*


True... BUT see my response to H (above).

I think UK is ready to break-out...

Herchel
08-20-2017, 07:41 AM
Wow, I stirred up a hornet's nest.

Like I said earlier, any team can put together a good season or two. Vandy did. However, there is a reason Mizzou is 1-5 against UGA, Jimmys and Joes.
You cherry picked just a little. :) UGA is 30-19-3 in Bowl games. Mizzou is 15-16.

Just Some Hog Dude
08-20-2017, 08:11 AM
We have 12 to Arkansas' Zero.

Arkansas has thirteen actually.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkansas_Razorbacks_football#Conference_championsh ips

zud the hut
08-20-2017, 02:16 PM
Our 3* is All SEC, Dominick Sanders
Jacob Hester was a 2* for LSU. But I really don't understand why he was a 2*. I watched him play at Evangel Christian Academy and personally, I thought he was the best player coming out of Louisiana. He averaged about 10 yards per carry. And was a good LB.
It isn't all about the stars. There are always bust in college and the NFL. However, you can't discount those stars either because they're the best educated guess that we have.

When I compare LSU and Bama, it isn't about the talent. One only needs to look at the players in the NFL to confirm that LSU is getting premium talent. For over a decade, Les Miles brought the talent to LSU. He failed in the development of that talent and how to use that talent and eventually LSU tired of this approach. Saban and Alabama have failed at nothing and we all want to host a retirement party for Saban.

I can only hope that Coach O's new approach is successful but this change was needed!

boxvic
08-21-2017, 07:57 AM
Well, for what its worth, UK is on track to bring in a top 15 class for 2018, which I think would put us 5th in the conference.

Honestly, recruiting isn't the issue for UK. A well coached team full of nothing but 3 and 4 star players can compete every year with teams loaded with 4 and 5 star players- hell there are probably just as many 5 star failures as there are three star guys who go on to be stars. I'm not saying UK has the talent to beat Alabama every year and win national titles, but over the last several seasons we have recruited well enough to win 9 games annually and be in the hunt for the division title. If you gave our team to Nick Saban, he would probably still be able to get 10 wins out of it.

UK's problem is still the coaching. I think Stoops and his staff took a HUGE leap forward last year, but all of the failures from the prior seasons landed right at their feet. For the most part it is a young staff that is learning on the job. Hopefully this year they continue where they left off last year, because we have the talent to make a game of it against every team on our schedule.

Just Some Hog Dude
08-21-2017, 08:20 AM
Well, for what its worth, UK is on track to bring in a top 15 class for 2018, which I think would put us 5th in the conference.


It is way too early to state that. Signing day is several months away. I don't think Kentucky has ever had a top 15 class and I doubt you will sans Ole Miss tactics.

boxvic
08-21-2017, 09:35 AM
It is way too early to state that. Signing day is several months away. I don't think Kentucky has ever had a top 15 class and I doubt you will sans Ole Miss tactics.

Ha... we shall see. Not sure that is so surprising or hard to believe for you... its only 8/9 spots higher than our last two classes have ranked, and this is by far the best class Stoops has pulled in yet.

Haters gotta hate.

Just Some Hog Dude
08-21-2017, 09:42 AM
Ha... we shall see. Not sure that is so surprising or hard to believe for you... its only 8/9 spots higher than our last two classes have ranked, and this is by far the best class Stoops has pulled in yet.

Haters gotta hate.

The reason being is the top 15 seems to filled with the same programs year after year. Ole Miss is the only program not in this group that broke into it for a few years before the NCAA stepped in.

A lot of elite recruits wait until the end to commit so these rankings always drastically change in January and February. What they look like in August doesn't mean much for the teams outside of the top 5.

Nobody hates Kentucky football. Do not be silly.

Herchel
08-21-2017, 10:09 AM
Well, for what its worth, UK is on track to bring in a top 15 class for 2018, which I think would put us 5th in the conference.

More like 7th. 2 years ago, UGA was 10th, and 8th in the SEC.

2016 team rankings:

1. Bama
3. UGA
7. LSU
9. Auburn
11. Florida
13. A&M