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Herchel
08-02-2017, 03:21 PM
http://www.sportsline.com/insiders/25811058/cfb-sportslines-season-win-projections-for-the-sec/?ttag=SL17_nl_247_georgia_0802




The SportsLine Projection Model has produced season-win forecasts for every college football team. We are going to compare SportsLine's numbers to the win totals offered by sportsbook Bovada, and I'll offer my own lean for each team.

Here is a look at the SEC:

East Division

Georgia Bulldogs

Bovada Over/Under: (8.5, Over -130, Under EVEN)

SportsLine Projection: 7.7 wins

Comment: The Bulldogs were uneven in an eight-win first season under coach Kirby Smart, but most signs point toward a breakout second season. They have perhaps the most dynamic backfield duo in the country in veterans Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Rising quarterback prospect Jacob Eason could be a star, but needs to cut down on turnovers. Moreover, Georgia returns almost its entire defense, a unit that allowed 24 points or fewer in its four wins down the stretch. Lean: Over.

JOSH NAGEL'S TOP 5 CFB SEASON-WIN TOTAL PLAYS

Florida Gators

Bovada Over/Under: (8, Over -155, Under +125)

SportsLine Projection: 7.7 wins

Comment: The late arrival of Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire could make a huge difference for the Gators, who have struggled to find consistent quarterback play despite reaching the past two SEC title games. Experienced weapons such receiver Antonio Callaway and running back Jordan Scarlett give the Gators more offensive punch, and they should again field a steady defensive unit. I think Florida will likely need to win one of its last two to clip this number. Lean: Over.

Tennessee Volunteers

Bovada Over/Under: (7.5, Over -110, Under -110)

SportsLine Projection: 7.4 wins

Comment: The Volunteers have a new offensive coordinator in Larry Scott and will be looking at a pair of quarterback prospects to replace departed longtime starter Joshua Dobbs. They have limited experienced weapons on offense, and must improve a shaky defense that allowed 218.5 rushing yards per game last season. Given that Tennessee has underachieved with more talented rosters, this number feels a bit ambitious. Lean: Under.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Bovada Over/Under: (5.5, Over -130, Under EVEN)

SportsLine Projection: 5.2 wins

Comment: In Will Muschamp's first season at the helm, the Gamecocks quietly turned around what appeared to be a disastrous campaign by winning four of their last six to become bowl-eligible. Rising quarterback prospect Jake Bentley leads 10 returning starters on offense. But an inconsistent defense will be thin up front and in the secondary. But a manageable early schedule gives South Carolina a jump start on this number. Lean: Over.

Kentucky Wildcats

Bovada Over/Under: (7, Over +130, Under -160)

SportsLine Projection: 6.8 wins

Comment: The Wildcats exceeded most projections by winning five of their last seven -- mostly against lower-tier SEC opponents -- to reach a bowl last season, highlighted by a win over heavily favored rival Louisville. The stretch run likely saved the job of coach Mark Stoops, who will be hard-pressed to duplicate the feat. Kentucky returns the bulk of its starting roster and should again be productive on offense, but a defense that allowed 31 points per game looms as a crutch. I see Kentucky needing another season-ending win against Louisville just to push this total. Lean: Under.





The SportsLine Projection Model has produced season-win forecasts for every college football team. We are going to compare SportsLine's numbers to the win totals offered by sportsbook Bovada, and I'll offer my own lean for each team.

Here is a look at the SEC:

East Division

Georgia Bulldogs

Bovada Over/Under: (8.5, Over -130, Under EVEN)

SportsLine Projection: 7.7 wins

Comment: The Bulldogs were uneven in an eight-win first season under coach Kirby Smart, but most signs point toward a breakout second season. They have perhaps the most dynamic backfield duo in the country in veterans Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Rising quarterback prospect Jacob Eason could be a star, but needs to cut down on turnovers. Moreover, Georgia returns almost its entire defense, a unit that allowed 24 points or fewer in its four wins down the stretch. Lean: Over.

JOSH NAGEL'S TOP 5 CFB SEASON-WIN TOTAL PLAYS

Florida Gators

Bovada Over/Under: (8, Over -155, Under +125)

SportsLine Projection: 7.7 wins

Comment: The late arrival of Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire could make a huge difference for the Gators, who have struggled to find consistent quarterback play despite reaching the past two SEC title games. Experienced weapons such receiver Antonio Callaway and running back Jordan Scarlett give the Gators more offensive punch, and they should again field a steady defensive unit. I think Florida will likely need to win one of its last two to clip this number. Lean: Over.

Tennessee Volunteers

Bovada Over/Under: (7.5, Over -110, Under -110)

SportsLine Projection: 7.4 wins

Comment: The Volunteers have a new offensive coordinator in Larry Scott and will be looking at a pair of quarterback prospects to replace departed longtime starter Joshua Dobbs. They have limited experienced weapons on offense, and must improve a shaky defense that allowed 218.5 rushing yards per game last season. Given that Tennessee has underachieved with more talented rosters, this number feels a bit ambitious. Lean: Under.

KENNY WHITE'S TOP CFB SEASON-WIN TOTAL SELECTIONS

South Carolina Gamecocks

Bovada Over/Under: (5.5, Over -130, Under EVEN)

SportsLine Projection: 5.2 wins

Comment: In Will Muschamp's first season at the helm, the Gamecocks quietly turned around what appeared to be a disastrous campaign by winning four of their last six to become bowl-eligible. Rising quarterback prospect Jake Bentley leads 10 returning starters on offense. But an inconsistent defense will be thin up front and in the secondary. But a manageable early schedule gives South Carolina a jump start on this number. Lean: Over.

Kentucky Wildcats

Bovada Over/Under: (7, Over +130, Under -160)

SportsLine Projection: 6.8 wins

Comment: The Wildcats exceeded most projections by winning five of their last seven -- mostly against lower-tier SEC opponents -- to reach a bowl last season, highlighted by a win over heavily favored rival Louisville. The stretch run likely saved the job of coach Mark Stoops, who will be hard-pressed to duplicate the feat. Kentucky returns the bulk of its starting roster and should again be productive on offense, but a defense that allowed 31 points per game looms as a crutch. I see Kentucky needing another season-ending win against Louisville just to push this total. Lean: Under.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Bovada Over/Under: (6, Over +120, Under -150)

SportsLine Projection: 5.2 wins

Comment: Derek Mason's club ended last year on a high note as its long-struggling offense erupted for 83 combined points in consecutive home upsets over Ole Miss and Tennessee, allowing the Commodores to reach a bowl game. They return a wealth of experienced players, but face a daunting mi-season SEC stretch. Early nonconference games against Middle Tennessee State and Kansas State likely will determine the outcome for the Commodoresí season-win prop. But I think six wins will be difficult to come by. Lean: Under.

Missouri Tigers

Bovada Over/Under: (6.5, Over +120, Under -150)

SportsLine Projection: 5.6 wins

Comment: Quarterback Drew Lock made strides last season, and the junior could be headed toward a breakout year as the Tigers return nearly their entire offense. But a porous defense that allowed 31.5 points per game appears to have few impact players and will again be a liability. A nonconference slate loaded with weak opponents is the reason for this lofty number, but the Tigers are a longshot to get there. Lean: Under.

ean: None.

Herchel
08-02-2017, 03:21 PM
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West Division

Alabama Crimson Tide

Bovada Over/Under: (10.5, Over -200, Under +160)

SportsLine Projection: 10.8 wins

Comment: Nick Saban's dynastic run with the Crimson Tide should see another chapter written this season, as his team has plenty of playmakers returning from the club that reached last year's title game before being upset by Clemson. This time, the strength is in offensive playmakers, who include dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts, running back Damien Harris and wideout Calvin Ridley. Alabama would likely need to lose to Auburn on the final day of the season and suffer another upset along the way in order for the Under to come in. The better bet is to lay the price. Lean: Over.

SPORTSLINE'S SEASON-WIN PROJECTIONS FOR BIG 12

Auburn Tigers

Bovada Over/Under: (8.5, Over -150, Under +120)

SportsLine Projection: 8.0 wins

Comment: Last year, Auburn was a trendy pick to have a breakout the season. The Tigers managed eight wins but were felled by inconsistent play at quarterback, a position that became a revolving door. Many observers feel this issue should be remedied with the arrival of Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham, a dual threat who impressed in his short time with the Bears. Auburn also returns the bulk of the country’s seventh-ranked defense (17 ppg). I think Auburn beats this number ahead of the season-ending Iron Bowl. Lean: Over.

LSU Tigers

Bovada Over/Under: (9, Over -130, Under EVEN)

SportsLine Projection: 8.2 wins

Comment: Heading into his first full season as head coach, Ed Orgeron wisely addressed an offense that had been plagued by inconsistency. He hired coordinator Matt Canada, who turned Pittsburgh into a juggernaut. The Tigers have one of the best running backs in the country in Derrius Grice, who ran for 1,387 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. But they will need improved quarterback play from Purdue transfer Danny Etling. LSU also must replace several key contributors on defense, including the whole linebackers corps. This will be an entertaining and solid team, but I see no value in the number. Lean: Push.

SPORTSLINE'S SEASON-WIN PROJECTIONS FOR BIG 10

Arkansas Razorbacks

Bovada Over/Under: (7, Over -130, Under EVEN)

SportsLine Projection: 6.1 wins

Comment: The Razorbacks have the most underappreciated dual-threat quarterbacks in the country in Austin Allen, who threw for 3,430 yards and 25 touchdowns last year. But their optimism for a breakout season is tempered by the loss of running back Rawleigh Williams, who retired from football after suffering an injury. He ran for 1,360 yards and scored 12 touchdowns last season. A shoddy defense (31 ppg) looms as a lingering issue. This will be another bowl-eligible but unspectacular Arkansas club. Lean: Push.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Bovada Over/Under: (5.5, Over -155, Under -125)

SportsLine Projection: 4.9 wins

Comment: Nick Fitzgerald evolved into an exciting and dependable dual-threat quarterback, and he will be one of the top offensive weapons in the SEC. The junior accounted for nearly 3,800 yards from scrimmage and scored 37 touchdowns while leading the Bulldogs in passing and rushing. He returns along with a handful of experienced playmakers, but a leaky defense that allowed 109 points in a two-game span must improve. They have enough to reach a bowl game. Lean: Over.

Texas A&M Aggies

Bovada Over/Under: (7, Over -110, Under -110)

SportsLine Projection: 8.4 wins

Comment: Coach Kevin Sumlin's tradition of sizzling starts and dismal finishes continued last season, with a 6-0 start followed by a 2-5 stretch. There’s a strong chance the Aggies could again begin 5-0, but the fun ends Oct. 7 when they host Alabama. Texas A&M has a serviceable quarterback in Jake Hubenak and some experienced weapons, led by receiver Christian Kirk. The defense will miss top overall draft pick Myles Garrett, but returns six starters. Eight wins are a realistic scenario, but I can't recommend the Over with such a history of unmet expectations. Lean: Push.

Ole Miss Rebels

Bovada Over/Under: (5.5, Over -135, Under +105)

SportsLine Projection: 5.5 wins

Comment: Most wagering outlets have pulled odds on Ole Miss amid the abrupt resignation of former coach High Freeze and continued off-field trouble for the program. SportsLine's simulations dropped a full win after the Freeze news dropped. On the field, the Rebels still have some talent, led by highly touted quarterback Shea Patterson. But there's no way of knowing how they will respond with all the distractions. Follow the lead of sportsbooks and take a pass on the Rebels. L